Middletown, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

739
FXUS61 KILN 041833
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
233 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) It will be very warm and humid today with scattered thunderstorms
during the late afternoon into the late evening hours. Outdoor
activities could be impacted by lightning.

2) Scattered storms will develop again Sunday and Monday. Temperatures
will return to near normal levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Temperatures and dewpoints have been a bit lower than guidance
today. Have nudged these down a bit. Despite this, it will still be
very warm and humid with heat index values up to around 100 degrees
during the afternoon.

Satellite data this morning has revealed a few convergent bands in
the low-level cu fields... likely left over from clusters of storms
last night. These are mostly located near or just north of
Interstate 70. Mesoanalysis for the next few hours reveals peak mixed
layer CAPE of around 3,000 J/kg setting up between I-70 and I-71
later this afternoon and evening. While an isolated storm is possible
pretty much anywhere during this time, perhaps the focus of
convective development will be near I-70 where the largest
instability gradient resides. DCAPE will once again approach or
exceed 1,000 J/kg, so the primary threats will be brief heavy rain
and gusty winds and the cores collapse.

Moving into the evening hours, convection will develop toward the
Tri-State Region. Again, it will be isolated in coverage everywhere,
but the focus will shift south.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Sunday into Monday, a weak mid-level disturbance will slowly shift
east through our area with showers and storms possible each day.
Instability will be much less as winds shift to the north behind a
weak frontal boundary. This will limit the severe storm threat.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early in the
period. Coverage will initially be rather isolated, but may increase
some as the focus of the activity shifts to the south into the
evening hours. Have included a PROB30 for now due to limited coverage
but will amend as conditions warrant and confidence improves.

Thunderstorm coverage will decrease tonight. There will be
additional isolated storm development Sunday afternoon. This will be
included with subsequent updates.

Outlook...Thunderstorms possible through Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for OHZ042-043-
     051-053-060>062-070-071-077-078.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for KYZ091>093.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for INZ074.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...04